CBI Economic Forecast
The CBI’s economic forecast for July predicts UK GDP growth of1.4% in 2019, and 1.5% in 2020.
A key driver is growth in household spending (expected to grow 1.7% in both 2019 and 2020) underpinned by improvement in real earnings. However, Brexit uncertainty continues to bite hard on business investment, which remains very weak for this stage of the economic cycle. The CBI expects business investment to fall by -1.3% in 2019 and to grow by +0.9% in 2020. It also expects the one-off boost from pre-Brexit stockpiling of inventories to unwind in the next quarter, when it expects the economy to flatline. Beyond that, the CBI expects modest underlying growth, similar to that seen over the last year.
The CBM expects global economic growth to be +3.0% for 2019, and +3.5% in 2020.